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July 2018

The labour market figures published on 17 July are again good news with a strong rise in employment and falling unemployment and economic inactivity in the latest quarter. However, the monthly numbers suggest that the labour market may be starting to slow.

  • Unemployment is 1,411,000, down by 5,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline reduced by 12,000) and the unemployment rate is 4.2%, no change on last month and also no change on last quarter.
  • The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 898,700, up by 7,800 on last month, and the claimant rate is 2.5%.
  • The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 1,004,000, down by 1,000 on the quarter, representing 14.3% of the youth population (up 0.1 percentage points).
  • Youth unemployment (including students) is 520,000, and fell by 17,000 on the quarter.
  • There are 1.7 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may rise slightly next month.
  • The employment rate is 75.7% (up 0.1 percentage point on last month’s published figure and up 0.3 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

Download the full analysis for July 2018.


Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)

The latest unemployment figure is 1,411,000. It has fallen by 5,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

https://www.learningandwork.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/chart1_July2018-600x350.png

Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or JSA

The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 36.6%; (517,000).

 

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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24)

Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by 4,000 from last month’s figure and is now 139,000. The youth long-term JSA count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 17,300. The count fell by 400 this month.

https://www.learningandwork.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/chart3_July2018-600x350.png

Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)

Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 284,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 152,900.

 

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