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June 2018

The labour market figures published on 12 June are another set of positive set of numbers with a strong rise in employment and falling unemployment and economic inactivity in the latest quarter. However, weak growth raises concerns about whether such positivity will be sustained.

  • Unemployment is 1,416,000, is down by 9,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline has fallen by 38,000) and the unemployment rate 4.2%, showed no change on last month and fell by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter.
  • The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 886,200, down by 7,700 on last month, and the claimant rate is 2.5%.
  • The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 973,000, and fell by 26,000 on the quarter, now representing 13.8% of the youth population (decreased by 0.3 percentage points).
  • Youth unemployment (including students) is 520,000, and fell by 17,000 on the quarter.
  • There are 1.8 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may decline slightly next month.
  • The employment rate is 75.6% , (the same as on last month’s published figure and has risen by 0.3 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

Download the full analysis for June 2018.


Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)

The latest unemployment figure is 1,416,000. It has down by 9,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate was unchanged on last month at 4.2%.

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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or JSA

As unemployment has fallen while the claimant count has been rising, the proportion of unemployed people not claiming benefits has fallen to 38.9%; (550,000).

 

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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24)

Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by 4,000 from last month’s figure and is now 135,000.

The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 17,700. The count fell by 500 this month.

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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)

Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 288,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 152,000.

 

 

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